New-Car Sales Forecast Up 4% in November, KBB Says

New-Car Sales Forecast Up 4% in November, KBB SaysBlack Friday new-car deals are expected to help push overall new-vehicle sales up 4 percent for November, year-over-year, to a total of nearly 1.19 million units, according to Kelley Blue Book.
Fears of a “vehicle sale hangover” after the government shutdown in October turned out to be largely overblown, as consumer traffic at dealerships has kept a brisk pace.
“Although sales are only expected to rise approximately 3.6 percent from last year, it should be noted that sales were especially strong in November 2012, as consumers on the East Coast returned to the dealership to replace a vehicle or make a purchase that was delayed due to Superstorm Sandy,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.
Sales in November tend to be heavily skewed toward the end of the month because of Black Friday sales events, such as General Motors’ current “supplier pricing promotion” and deals on Ford models, he added.
A housing market recovery is indirectly helping General Motors. The Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra should have solid growth, as demand for pickups continues with the strength in home construction.
The largest automaker is also expected to receive a strong push in November from high demand for redesigned models across its product portfolio.
Here are key highlights for KBB‘s estimated November 2013 Sales Forecast:

  • In November, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,185,000 units, up 3.6 percent from November 2012 and down 1.7 percent from October 2013.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for November 2013 is estimated to be 15.6 million, up from 15.3 million in November 2012 and up from 15.2 million in October 2013.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 83 percent of volume in November 2013.

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